When will things go back to normal in LA?
What we know (and don't know) about what happens next
If you know me at all, you’re probably smirking at the title of this post—not because there’s anything remotely funny about the situation in Los Angeles right now. But, you may know I’m not one for pushing a forced return to normal after an unprecedented event (see: the last mass disabling event I lived through).
That being said, it’s understandable to be wondering when we can safely resume some semblance of our regular routines. After all, many people are unhoused and/or losing income. Friends this week have been asking: When will the air be safe to breathe, unmasked? How do I know if I can return to my home? How do I clean up after this disaster? And, will everything be fine once the fires are contained?
The truth is, there’s a lot we don’t know. The thing about unprecedented events is that they’re kind of hard to predict. As of this writing, we aren’t even sure when the fires will stop burning in Los Angeles—let alone when the air will clear. Here’s what we do know.
1. There are still numerous hot spots in Altadena and the Palisades.
As of Wednesday, January 15, LA County Officials were reporting “hot spots” in the rubble near Eaton and Palisades fires, which they said had held heat for five to six days. According to Matt Heerwald, a Texas firefighter
spoke to this week, the term hot spot in this context likely refers to objects that are still smoldering, and have been identified using drones or satellites that rely infrared technology to detect heat. These hot spots can emit toxins.2. The air may clear, but pollutants can remain longer on surfaces.
In their gas phase, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)—a large group of organic compounds that typically derive from vehicle emissions, domestic heating, and/or cooking—typically don’t linger for more than a few days. In their particulate phase, however, PAHs can last for weeks. This means that once PAHs absorb into other particulate matter, like soot and dust—as opposed to just hanging out in our air—they can stick around for longer. Even once the fires cease and smoke fully dissipates, areas of our homes may have absorbed toxic chemicals and smoke. These surfaces can continue to release gases for weeks, and sometimes months.
[a smoke plume extends over LA at dusk. photo c. Jordan Freeman]
3. Cleanup processes kick up more dust.
Whenever the big cleanup process commences in LA, we should expect more particulate matter to enter the air. 9/11 health advocate Lila Nordstrom told me in an interview this week that a substantial portion of folks who developed long-term health issues post-9/11 were likely exposed during cleanup efforts—either working at Fresh Kills landfill where debris from Ground Zero was dumped, or trying to clean their own homes.
If you have to return to your home, keep an eye out for visible soot and ash. Even if you don’t smell smoke, that doesn’t mean hazardous materials aren’t present. Wear personal protective equipment (PPE), like masks, while cleaning, shower and wash your clothes afterward, and if you have to vacuum, make sure you’re using a machine with a HEPA filter—as other vacuums will likely kick up dust without filtering it. Avoid leaf blowers and sweeping. This LA Times article has more tips for safely clearing the smoke smell from your home. This guide from a community member on basic personal safety recommendations after coming into contact with hazardous material is also very helpful.
We’ll need to be aware of when major cleanup efforts begin in LA—which may not start for at least another six to eight weeks—but it’s also wise to keep an eye out for smaller cleanup events. For example, if your neighbor in Pasadena starts using a leaf-blower or vacuum to clean their property this weekend, it might be prudent to mask up or take a little day trip elsewhere while the dust clears.
4. We’ll need to pay attention to the weather forecast.
Future high winds are likely to continue circulating these toxins—especially since rain is unlikely to wash them away quickly. Particulate matter can really travel. Remember when people in New York City experienced hazardous air quality from fires in Canada in 2023? That’s the sort of mileage we could be looking at. According to LAist, some experts recommend PurpleAir Map as an alternative to AQI, since it can track real-time smoke plumes.
5. Other, similar, hazardous events impacted air quality for a while.
In the aftermath of 9/11, fires continued to burn at ground zero through 2002. The CDC still isn’t sure how long the 350 hazardous materials later identified remained in the area. Nordstrom says 9/11 isn’t a perfect parallel for this disaster, because the hazardous zone there was concentrated into a very small area with a huge amount of debris—whereas damage in LA is more spread out. But, she urges people to remain vigil about multiple kinds of exposure. “They'll have to be worrying about what the air smells like, what AQI is telling them, but also just what their senses are telling them,” she says.
It also took until 2018 for the World Trade Center Health Program to release a report on the list of these toxins—and Nordstrom says we still don’t have a complete inventory on these chemicals. This is also an important reminder that governments sometimes dispense crucial public health information sloooooowly.
Safety pin
It’s difficult to predict exactly when the air will be clean enough to breathe without a mask, and it’s likely air quality will wax and wane. AQI isn’t a perfect replica for the quality of the air around us, so—if possible—pay attention to how you’re feeling, what you’re smelling, and what you’re seeing. and progress likely won’t be linear. High winds and big cleanup efforts are likely to kick up more dust in the future, so keep an eye out for these developments. In the meantime, take precautions if you have to clean your home, and look out for “hot spots,” if you live in an area where anything burned. Finally, we can work as a community to advocate for safer conditions. Check out this petition for immediate action to address the firestorm catastrophes. As always, stay safe out there.